Ogun: The swinging alliances of the kingmakers that stopped Amosun

What had appeared, alongside the Imo State governorship election, to be one of the most competitive governorship contests in the country eventually developed into a two-horse race between the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Allied Peoples Movement (APM).

Although the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) listed 41 political parties for the Ogun State governorship election, the contest was largely dominated by the APC candidate, Dapo Abiodun, and the APM candidate, Adekunle Akinlade.

The APM emerged as a major political force in the state following the controversy that surrounded the APC governorship primary. Akinlade, who was the preferred candidate of outgoing Governor Ibikunle Amosun, failed to secure the APC ticket, prompting him and his supporters to move to the APM.

Amosun subsequently declared his support for Akinlade despite remaining a member of the APC and vowed to ensure his victory over the party’s official candidate, Dapo Abiodun.

The governor’s political strength was expected to play a major role in the election, particularly in Ogun Central Senatorial District, where he enjoyed considerable support and which had the largest concentration of voters in the state.

The calculation within the Amosun camp was that the APM would dominate the six local government areas in Ogun Central, while Akinlade, who hails from Ogun West, would secure significant support across the five local government areas in that senatorial district.

Supporters of Amosun believed Ogun East was the major stronghold available to Abiodun and the APC.

However, the political calculations began to change as the election approached, following a series of alliances and endorsements in favour of Abiodun.

Several influential political figures threw their support behind the APC candidate, significantly strengthening his campaign across the state’s three senatorial districts.

Among those who backed Abiodun were former Ogun State Governor Gbenga Daniel, who brought his political structure into the alliance, Vice President Yemi Osinbajo and businessman Kessington Adebutu.

Former Governor Segun Osoba was also regarded as one of the major political forces behind Abiodun’s candidacy, having deployed his political structure in support of the APC candidate from the beginning of the contest.

The growing coalition ultimately altered the political balance and weakened Amosun’s plan to install Akinlade as his successor.

As the final results emerged, the APM rejected the outcome, dealing a major setback to Amosun’s attempt to preserve his political structure in the state through his preferred candidate.

The APC, on the other hand, welcomed the results and pledged to respect the mandate given to the party by voters.

Chairman of the APC Caretaker Committee in Ogun State, Yemi Sanusi, said the outcome demonstrated that the party remained widely accepted among residents.

Tension had risen shortly after voting ended amid accusations and counter-accusations between supporters of the APC and APM.

While the APC camp accused Amosun’s supporters of attempting to influence the results through allegedly compromised electoral officials and security personnel, APM supporters accused the APC of attempting to use federal influence to overturn the wishes of voters.

Security personnel were consequently deployed to collation centres across the state to prevent violence and maintain order.

The election also highlighted the constantly shifting alliances among Ogun State’s most influential political figures.

In 2003, Amosun worked alongside Gbenga Daniel in the political battle that prevented Segun Osoba from securing another term as governor.

Eight years later, Osoba aligned with Amosun to challenge Daniel’s political structure and prevent him from determining his successor.

By 2015, the alliances had shifted again, with Daniel joining forces with Osoba in an attempt to challenge Amosun’s political dominance.

The 2019 governorship election represented another major realignment, as former rivals once again came together, this time in support of Abiodun, ultimately frustrating Amosun’s attempt to install Akinlade as his successor.